THE EFFECTS OF EARTHQUAKES ON TOURISM: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY
Küçük Resim Yok
Tarih
2021
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
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Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Turkey has been hit by many earthquakes during the last century. A 7.4 earthquake that lasted for 45 seconds struck the Marmara Region on 17 August 1999 at 3:02 am. In addition to its destructive effects such as property losses and personal injuries, it also had negative effects on the tourism industry. The cancellation of package tours for foreign tourists in Turkey had a negative impact on travel agencies, hotels and airlines. The purpose of the present study is to outline the economic impact of the 1999 Earthquake on tourist flows. For this purpose, an event study was performed to evaluate the amount of loss between August 1998 and August 2001 due to the drop in the tourism industry. Additionally, the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ test, multiple linear regression (MLR) model and prediction models were employed to identify the patterns of structural change. The results show that the number of tourists decreased by about 20% following the earthquake. The results of the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ estimation analysis based on the control variables suggest that if there had been no earthquakes, the number of future tourists would have been approximately 8% higher than the actual number of tourists who visited Turkey at that time.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynak
Journal of Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality
WoS Q Değeri
Scopus Q Değeri
Cilt
3
Sayı
2
