Türkiye'de siyasi istikrarın perakende güven endeksi üzerindeki etkisinin analizi: ARDL Sınır Testi yaklaşımı
Küçük Resim Yok
Tarih
2021
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Trakya Üniversitesi
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Bu çalışmanın amacı Siyasi İstikrar İndeksi'nin Perakende Güven Endeksi üzerindeki etkisinin ampirik olarak araştırılmasıdır. Çalışmada, "Türkiye Ekonomi Politikaları Araştırma Vakfı" (TEPAV)'nın yayınlamış olduğu "Perakende Güven Endeksi" ve "Siyasi İstikrar İndeksi" 2013:01 ve 2019:12 yılları arasında aylık veriler kullanılmış olup, "Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif Model ARDL sınır testi" yaklaşımı ile Türkiye'de Siyasi istikrar indeksinin Perakende güven endeksi üzerindeki etkisi araştırılmıştır. Ampirik analizde Perakende güven endeksi bağımlı, Siyasi istikrar indeksi ise bağımsız değişken olarak seçilmiştir. Değişkenlerin durağanlığı "Genişletilmiş Dickey Fuller (ADF)" ve "Phillips-Perron (PP)" testleri ile incelenmiştir. ADF ve PP birim kök test sonuçlarına göre Perakende Güven Endeksi değişkeni seviye değerinde I(0) durağan iken; Siyasi İistikrar İndeksi değişkeni ise I(1) değerinde durağan olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Analizde kullanılacak her iki değişkeninde farklı seviyelerde durağan olması ve en fazla birinci farkta birim kök içermemesi durumu göz önüne alındığında Peseran vd.(2001) tarafından ortaya çıkarılan ARDL ("Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif Model") modelin kullanılması uygun görülmüştür. Sınır Testi sonrası modelde CUSUM ve CUSUM kare testleri ile yapısal kırılmanın varlığı araştırılmış ve modelde yapısal kırılma olmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Analiz sonucuna göre, incelenen dönemlerde Siyasi istikrar endeksi ile Perakende güven endeksi arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif yönlü bir ilişki olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Bir başka deyişle bu dönemde Türkiye'de Siyasi istikrar indeksi arttığında Perakende güven endeksi de artmaktadır. Yapılan analiz sonucunda, literatürde yapılan çalışmalar incelendiğinde Siyasi istikrar endeksinin ekonomik göstergeler üzerindeki etkisi de çalışmayı desteklemektedir.
The main goal of the present study is to experientially investigate the effects of Political Stability Index on Retail Trust Index. Monthly data of Political Stability Index and Retail Trust Index published by Turkey Economic Policies Research Institution (TEPAV) between 2013:01 and 2019:12 were used for the study and effects of Political Stability Index on Retail Trust Index in Turkey were studied with Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Test (ARDL). For the empirical analysis, retail trust index was designated as the dependent variable, and the political stability index was designated as the independent variable. The stationarity of the values were investigated using "Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF)" and "Phillips-Perron (PP)" tests. According to the ADF and PP unit root tests, the Retail Trust Index variable was stable at level value I (0) and, The Political Stability Index variable was stable at level value I (1). As the variables were stable at different levels and not consisting of root unit most in first difference were taken into consideration, it was decided to use the ARDL model of Pesaran et al. for the study. After the bound test, structural break was searched with CUSUM and CUSUM square tests and no structural break was found in the model. According to the analysis result, it was decided that there is a significant and positive relation between the Political Stability Index and Retail Trust Index during the period of the study. In other words, during this period one can see that when Political Stability Index rises in Turkey, Retail Trust Index rises as well. The literature evaluation results also supports the study in the case of Political Stability Index having effects on economic indicators.
The main goal of the present study is to experientially investigate the effects of Political Stability Index on Retail Trust Index. Monthly data of Political Stability Index and Retail Trust Index published by Turkey Economic Policies Research Institution (TEPAV) between 2013:01 and 2019:12 were used for the study and effects of Political Stability Index on Retail Trust Index in Turkey were studied with Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Test (ARDL). For the empirical analysis, retail trust index was designated as the dependent variable, and the political stability index was designated as the independent variable. The stationarity of the values were investigated using "Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF)" and "Phillips-Perron (PP)" tests. According to the ADF and PP unit root tests, the Retail Trust Index variable was stable at level value I (0) and, The Political Stability Index variable was stable at level value I (1). As the variables were stable at different levels and not consisting of root unit most in first difference were taken into consideration, it was decided to use the ARDL model of Pesaran et al. for the study. After the bound test, structural break was searched with CUSUM and CUSUM square tests and no structural break was found in the model. According to the analysis result, it was decided that there is a significant and positive relation between the Political Stability Index and Retail Trust Index during the period of the study. In other words, during this period one can see that when Political Stability Index rises in Turkey, Retail Trust Index rises as well. The literature evaluation results also supports the study in the case of Political Stability Index having effects on economic indicators.
Açıklama
Yüksek Lisans
Anahtar Kelimeler
Bankacılık, Banking ; Ekonomi
