Türkiye'de ekonomik büyüme dinamikleri: Ekonomik büyüme ve dış ticaret ilişkisi nedensellik analizi
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Date
2019
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Trakya Üniversitesi
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Abstract
Geçmişten günümüze ekonomiler için önemli belirleyicilerden biri ekonomik büyüme olmuştur. Ekonomik büyümenin kaynağının tespit edilmesi ve bu doğrultuda uygulamalar yapılması ülkede yaşayan bireylerin refahı için oldukça önemlidir. Ekonomik büyümenin kaynağı oluşturan pek çok değişken bulunmaktadır ve bunlardan biri de dış ticarettir. Küreselleşme süreciyle birlikte dış ticaretin ekonomik büyümeye etkisi araştırılan ve gündemde olan bir konu haline gelmiştir. Çalışmada dış ticaretin dinamikleri incelenmiş ve ekonomik büyüme ile dış ticaret ilişkisi analiz edilmiştir. Çalışma üç bölümden oluşmaktadır. İlk bölümde kavramsal açıdan büyüme ele alınmış, büyümenin kaynakları ve türlerine değinilmiştir. Aynı zamanda dış ticaretle ilgili kavramlar, ihracat ve ithalat açıklanmış ve ihracat-ithalat türleri özetlenmiştir. Ayrıca iktisadi akımların büyümeyi açıklamada kullandıkları metotlar olan büyüme teorileri tek tek incelenmiştir. İkinci bölümde ise Türkiye'de büyüme kavramı ele alınmış Osmanlı döneminden günümüze kadar olan süreçte dış ticaret ve ekonomik büyüme verileri incelenmiştir. Üçüncü bölümde ise ekonomik büyüme ve dış ticaret verileri üzerine ekonometrik analiz uygulanmıştır. Öncelikle verilerin durağanlıkları sonra VAR modeli üzerinden Granger nedensellik analizi uygulanmıştır. Daha sonra modelin otokorelasyon içerip içermediği test edilmiş, varyans ayrıştırması ve etki tepki analizi yapılmıştır.
Economic growth has been one of the important determinants for economies from past to present. Identifying the source of economic growth and implementing it in this direction is very important for the well-being of individuals living in the country.There are many variables that make up the source of economic growth, and one of which is foreign trade.Along with the globalization process, the impact of foreign trade on economic growth has been investigated and has become an issue on the agenda. In this study, the dynamics of foreign trade are examined and the relationship between economic growth and foreign trade is analysed. The study consists of three parts. In the first part, the conceptual growth has been considered, the sources and types of growth have been mentioned. At the same time, concepts related to foreign trade, export and import are explained, export and import types are summarized. In addition, growth theories which are the methods used by economic thoughts to explain growth are examined one by one. In the second part, the growth concepts of Turkey is discussed, foreign trade and economic growth from the Ottoman period to the present are examined. In the third part, econometric analysis is applied on economic growth and foreign trade data. Firstly, the stability of data's are analysed and then Granger Causality Analysis is applied with VAR model. Then, the model has been tested for autocorrelation, variance decomposition and effect response analysis are performed.
Economic growth has been one of the important determinants for economies from past to present. Identifying the source of economic growth and implementing it in this direction is very important for the well-being of individuals living in the country.There are many variables that make up the source of economic growth, and one of which is foreign trade.Along with the globalization process, the impact of foreign trade on economic growth has been investigated and has become an issue on the agenda. In this study, the dynamics of foreign trade are examined and the relationship between economic growth and foreign trade is analysed. The study consists of three parts. In the first part, the conceptual growth has been considered, the sources and types of growth have been mentioned. At the same time, concepts related to foreign trade, export and import are explained, export and import types are summarized. In addition, growth theories which are the methods used by economic thoughts to explain growth are examined one by one. In the second part, the growth concepts of Turkey is discussed, foreign trade and economic growth from the Ottoman period to the present are examined. In the third part, econometric analysis is applied on economic growth and foreign trade data. Firstly, the stability of data's are analysed and then Granger Causality Analysis is applied with VAR model. Then, the model has been tested for autocorrelation, variance decomposition and effect response analysis are performed.
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Keywords
Ekonomi, Economics
