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  • Küçük Resim
    Öğe
    Türkiye’de 1960-2009 Yıllarını Kapsayan Dış Ticaret Politikalarının İktisadi Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkilerinin Ekonometrik Analizi
    (Trakya Üniversitesi, 2014) Aksu, Levent
    This study investigates the causal relationship between economic growth and foreign trade (import and export) in the period between 1960 and 2009 in Turkey's economy. GNP, import and export data is used in the study. Short and long term growth relationship has been demonstrated by using the ADF, PP and KPSS unit root tests, Granger causality and Toda-YamamotoDolado-Lütkepohl (MWALD) causality tests. Moreover; Zivot-Andrews breaking test is also used. Short and long term relationships are examined in Granger causality tests and MWALD causality tests. While Granger causality tests allow for "Short-term" causality analysis, MWALD causality tests allow for "Long-term" causality analysis. In the empirical study on Turkey, a positive and significant one-way causal relationship from exports toward economic growth has been found. Furthermore a bidirectional and positive correlation has been found in the short and long-term causal relationship between imports and economic growth. According to the ZivotAndrews breaking test the breaking years are 1999 in import and 2001 in export
  • Küçük Resim
    Öğe
    Türkiye’de Kamu Maliyesi Politikalarının İktisadi Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkilerinin Ekonometrik Analizi
    (Trakya Üniversitesi, 2014) Aksu, Levent
    This paper attempts to test Wagner and Keynesian hypothesis by examining econometrics tests the relationship between economic growth and total government expenditures as well as its various government instruments as taxes, total debt stocks, public incomes and consolidated budget for the Turkish case over the period of 1960-2009. the relationship between Wagner's and Keynes's hypothesis and ecenomic growth is analyzed by using econometric tests. In the study, GNP and public finance instruments (taxes, public revenues, the total debt stock, consolidated budget and public expenditure) are used as variables. ADF, PP and KPSS unit root tests, Granger causality and TodaYamamoto-Dolado-Lütkepohl (MWALD) causality tests are used. Moreover; ZivotAndrews breaking test is also used. Short and long term relationships are examined in Granger causality tests MWALD causality tests. While Granger causality tests allow for “short-term” causality analysis, MWALD causality tests allow for “long-term” causality analysis. Test results confirm the Keynes's hypothesis. Causal relationship has been found. In the empirical study on Turkey, the effect of the increase in public spending on economic growth is one-way, positive and significant. While there is no causality from economic growth towards public expenditures that confirms Wagner hypothesis in the short term, there is a bidirectional causality relationship in the long term. There are many variables on economic growth in Turkey; however variables that are about public finance instruments are more obvious